Bold premise: the 2026 MLB Draft landscape is already set, and the predictions are underway even before the first pick is officially announced. But here’s where it gets controversial: does projecting the top three picks as pure shortstop talent make sense when the draft always includes surprising positional ambitions and late bloomers? Let’s walk through Pipeline’s first full mock draft for 2026, unpacking the logic, the players, and the potential flashpoints for disagreement.
With MLB having concluded the Draft Lottery, we now know the exact order of picks. The draft itself won’t commence until July 11, 2026, giving teams 214 days to prepare. Still, our projection train is moving early, and we’re sharing our initial forecast without delay.
The White Sox earned the No. 1 overall pick via the lottery, and we anticipate them selecting Roch Cholowsky from UCLA. Cholowsky stands out as the top all-around college shortstop since Troy Tulowitzki in 2005, and he would be the overwhelming favorite to go first in any draft regardless of which team owned the top selection.
Shortstops emerge as the strength of the 2026 class. Our projections place shortstops in each of the first three selections and make up nine of the 25 first-round picks. The cohort includes 13 college hitters, five high school hitters, four college arms, and three prep pitchers.
- White Sox: Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA — He was the consensus national college player of the year as a sophomore and would have been the top prospect in the 2025 Draft as a shortstop with four plus tools, average speed, and high baseball IQ.
- Rays: Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth (Texas) Christian HS — The top prep prospect, Emerson could prove to be a quicker version of Cholowsky.
- Twins: Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama — If Lebron can improve his approach, he could develop into a shortstop with five true plus tools.
- Giants: Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech — Burress burst onto the college scene with nine homers in his first eight games and has continued to slug, showing solid tools across the board as a center fielder.
- Pirates: Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep, Miami — Son of former big leaguer George Lombard and brother of top Yankees prospect George Lombard Jr., Lombard offers more power and speed than Emerson, though hitting ability may lag slightly.
- Royals: Carson Bolemon, LHP, Southside Christian HS, Simpsonville, SC — Bolemon owns four quality pitches, plus control, physicality, and makeup, making him the top pitching prospect in the class, high school or college.
- Orioles: Derek Curiel, OF, LSU — The leading hitter on LSU’s 2025 College World Series championship team as a freshman, Curiel could rise if he adds more power and proves capable in center field.
- Athletics: Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina — Flukey stands out as the top college pitching prospect thanks to a mid-90s fastball and a downer curveball in the upper-70s that induces misses.
- Braves: Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS, Parkland, FL — A near mirror image of Bolemon, with slightly less upside in the changeup and command.
- Rockies: Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech — Lightly recruited out of high school, Lackey has blossomed into the top catching prospect, combining athletic defense with a patient approach.
- Nationals: Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida — Some evaluators prefer Peterson’s higher ceiling and louder stuff to Flukey’s polished profile.
- Angels: Sawyer Strosnider, OF, Texas Christian — Strosnider offers one of the best blends of size, athleticism, and all-around tools in the class.
- Cardinals: A.J. Gracia, OF, Virginia — The first transfer on this list, Gracia arrives from Duke as an advanced hitter with plus power and strong instincts in center field.
- Marlins: Chris Hacopian, SS, Texas A&M — Hacopian may be the class’s best pure hitter, showcasing exceptional feel for the barrel and tight zone discipline.
- Diamondbacks: Tyler Spangler, SS, De La Salle HS, Concord, CA — Spangler’s 6-foot-3 frame and well-rounded game draw comparisons to lefty-hitting Cal Ripken Jr. and Corey Seager.
- Rangers: Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara — Flora could push UC Santa Barbara to another top college pitcher selection, following in the footsteps of Tate and Bremner.
- Astros: Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi State — Reese brings explosive raw power, though questions linger about defensive position and overall hitting projection.
- Reds: Caden Sorrell, OF, Texas A&M — Sorrell’s all-around profile, plus the lineage of two grandfathers who played in the big leagues, points toward big-league potential.
- Guardians: Eric Becker, SS, Virginia — Becker resembles his younger brother Nick Becker, an offensive-minded middle infielder drafted by Seattle last year, in terms of profile and trajectory.
- Red Sox: Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky — Bell stands out as a switch-hitter with 20-homer potential and solid defense at shortstop; he was the highest unsigned pick from the 2024 supplemental round.
- Padres: Logan Schmidt, LHP, Ganesha HS, Pomona, CA — The top prep pitchers in this class are left-handers who throw strikes and feature a three-pitch arsenal.
- Tigers: Rocco Maniscalco, SS, Oxford (AL) HS — Maniscalco reclassified from the 2027 class, offering power potential with somewhat less speed than the top hitters.
- Cubs: Chris Rembert, 2B, Auburn — Second-base prospects rarely anchor a first round, but some evaluators believe Rembert has the strongest pure hitting ability among college players in the class.
- Mariners: Gabe Gaeckle, RHP, Arkansas — A shorter right-hander with electric arm, Gaeckle could rise earlier if he proves he can handle a starting role.
- Brewers: Trevor Condon, OF, Etowah HS, Woodstock, GA — Condon’s blend of hitting ability and speed draws comparisons to Nick Dykstra and Brett Gardner, with a more athletic profile akin to Sal Frelick.
From there, the narrative expands to account for penalties: the Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Blue Jays, and Dodgers all had their top picks pushed back by 10 spots due to overage spending beyond the 241 million competitive balance tax threshold in 2025. And because holiday enthusiasm is contagious, here are the additional projected selections for those clubs:
- Mets: Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas — Helfrick combines Gold Glove potential behind the plate with a ceiling of 25 homers.
- Yankees: Will Brick, C, Christian Brothers HS, Memphis, TN — Brick starred for Team USA, reclassified from 2027, and stands out with a rocket arm and a solid bat.
- Phillies: Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas — Dietz battled elbow issues early in college, but fall practice showed elite potential, so we’re grading him in a mid-first-round range.
- Blue Jays: Blake Bowen, OF, JSerra Catholic HS, San Juan Capistrano, CA — Bowen was a standout wide receiver before dedicating himself to baseball, representing a high school version of Strosnider.
- Dodgers: Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Tennessee — Kuhns is the best sophomore-eligible pitching prospect in the class, featuring a commanding fastball and a well-developed curve.
Controversial hooks and audience prompts: this projection leans heavily on the strength of shortstops and high school batters, which could invite debate about positional value in a modern draft where pitching depth and ceiling sometimes trump college-ready position players. Do you agree that the 2026 class should prioritize shortstops at the top, or would you rather see teams chase upside with pitchers or outfield talents even earlier? As you consider these picks, what factors would you weigh most—tools, approach, defense, or injury history? Share your take in the comments.
