Australia's political landscape is undergoing a seismic shift, and it's sending shockwaves through the establishment. For the first time ever, One Nation has pulled even with the Coalition in voter support, marking a dramatic rise for the populist party and a stark challenge for newly minted Liberal leader Angus Taylor. This isn't just a blip on the radar – it's a full-blown political earthquake that could reshape the country's future. But here's where it gets controversial: is this a temporary surge fueled by discontent, or a permanent realignment of Australia's conservative base? And this is the part most people miss: while One Nation's surge dominates headlines, the real story might be the continued erosion of support for the major parties, with nearly half of voters now looking beyond the traditional duopoly.
In the first poll since Taylor replaced Sussan Ley as Liberal leader, One Nation has soared to 23% of the primary vote. Interestingly, voters seem willing to give Taylor a chance, with the Coalition gaining three percentage points under his leadership compared to Ley's tenure. However, when presented with a hypothetical scenario pitting Ley against Taylor, One Nation emerges as the clear winner with 25% support, compared to 20% for Ley and a tied 23% for both One Nation and a Taylor-led Coalition. This highlights the fluidity of the current political climate and the challenges Taylor faces in consolidating his position.
The Coalition's decline continues, dropping from 28% in January to another record low, while One Nation has surged from 18% just last month. Labor, meanwhile, has regained some ground against Taylor's opposition, securing 32% of the primary vote. Taylor inherits a party desperate to convince voters it can tackle the cost of living crisis, with a staggering 92% citing it as a key voting issue and 45% ranking it as their top concern. Immigration, a priority for Taylor, and refugees (10%) are the only other issues reaching double-digit concern levels.
Conducted by Resolve Political Monitor from February 8 to 14, this poll surveyed 1800 respondents during the leadership transition, with a margin of error of ±2.3%. With One Nation and the Coalition neck-and-neck at 23% each, the focus shifts away from the two-party-preferred vote. Given One Nation's concentrated support base, only a seat-by-seat analysis could reveal their potential electoral gains.
The poll underscores the ongoing decline of the major parties. Just 51% of voters favored one of the two major parties under Ley's leadership, while 49% leaned towards alternatives like One Nation, the Greens, or independents. Taylor's ascension has slightly boosted the major parties' combined vote share to 55%, but 'others' still hold a substantial 45%. This echoes the last election, where a third of voters opted for independents and minor parties.
Acknowledging the urgency, Taylor and his deputy, Jane Hume, pledged on Sunday to refocus the party on its traditional strength: economic management. This shift is crucial as One Nation's rapid rise, as illustrated in the simplified chart, challenges the very definition of 'minor party.' Resolve pollster Jim Read notes that One Nation's surge has rendered the 'minor party' label obsolete. 'In Ley's final week, Pauline Hanson's party overtook the Coalition,' he said. 'Taylor's leadership reset has allowed him to regain some ground, but he needs to repeat this success tenfold to even approach Labor's level.'
Taylor's likeability rating stands at a modest +3%, typical for a new leader, compared to Albanese's -12% and Ley's -11%. Andrew Hastie, who briefly considered challenging Ley, enjoys a +4% likeability. When voters were asked to choose their preferred Liberal leader from five options, Ley led with 19%, followed by Hastie (13%), Taylor (10%), Tim Wilson (4%), and Ted O’Brien (3%). A significant 52% remained undecided or had no preference.
Ley's popularity spanned Labor, Greens, and Coalition voters, likely due to her incumbency. Among One Nation voters, Hastie (26%) was the clear favorite, followed by Taylor (15%) and Ley (10%). Pauline Hanson boasts the highest net likeability at +7%, while David Littleproud and Chris Bowen share the lowest ratings at -8%, alongside Ley and Albanese.
Sixty-one percent of respondents recognized Taylor, a 13-year MP veteran, with 32% holding a neutral view. This suggests he has room to define his narrative, even as Labor resurrects past controversies from his time as energy minister under Morrison. Is Taylor the leader who can unite the conservative vote, or will One Nation's rise continue to fragment Australia's political right? The coming months will be decisive, and the implications for Australia's future are profound. What do you think? Is One Nation's surge a temporary protest vote, or a lasting shift in Australia's political landscape? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
