Bold claim: the U.S. labor market is about to reveal the truth behind months of confusing headlines. After the longest government shutdown in history, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is finally releasing October payrolls and November’s full jobs data at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists, consumers, and even the Federal Reserve chair have waited for clarity, and this release aims to provide it.
Taken together, the October and November reports can seem conflicting when viewed in isolation—October’s numbers hint at weakness, while November suggests a rebound. Yet when considered as a pair, they align with other recent data showing a gradual weakening in the labor market and a slowly rising unemployment rate. If the pessimistic forecasts prove accurate, October could mark the most significant one-month payroll decline since December 2020, near the pandemic’s peak. If they’re too gloomy, that would be another reminder that markets sometimes defy expert predictions.
October projections varied widely on Wall Street. Some optimists, like Goldman Sachs, anticipate a small uptick of about 10,000 jobs. The broader consensus, however, skews toward contraction due to the shutdown’s impact. Estimates include 45,000 job losses from Citigroup and drops exceeding 60,000 from Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America. June and August already showed contractions this year for the first time since 2020.
There are multiple factors feeding the bearish outlook. One issue is the government’s deferred resignation program, which temporarily removed workers from the payroll. Wells Fargo economists noted that federal employment could fall roughly 125,000 in October, contributing to a sizable year-to-date drop in government payrolls. The shutdown itself could also depress the numbers, as furloughed workers faced unpaid time off until back pay was issued after reopening. JPMorgan warned that unpaid furloughs and back pay dynamics could drag October results lower.
There’s also a possibility that September’s numbers will be revised downward on Tuesday, further clouding the 2025 picture. Last year, the U.S. added over 2 million jobs, with 1.3 million of those gains coming by October 1. This year, job creation from January through September totaled 684,000—barely over half of the pace seen at the same point last year.
Looking ahead to November, many forecasters expect a rebound. Dow Jones–polled economists anticipate about 50,000 new jobs, though the unemployment rate might rise to around 4.5%. Even so, early signals for November carry caveats. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the data could be distorted, given that the 43-day shutdown halted some crucial data collection. With October’s unemployment rate and labor-force participation data missing, plus incomplete demographic details for November, interpretation will require careful scrutiny.
Powell emphasized a cautious approach: the release will be welcome after months of data scarcity, but policymakers will examine it skeptically to avoid drawing premature conclusions.
Steve Kopack, NBC News senior business and economy correspondent, provides ongoing coverage of these developments.
