Victoria's resistance to Pauline Hanson's One Nation party has long been seen as a badge of political sophistication. But this perception may be changing. In 1998, Hanson's party secured 8.4% of the national vote, yet only 3.7% in Victoria, indicating a lack of resonance in the state. However, recent developments suggest a shift. One Nation has been building a political base in Victoria, recruiting members, opening local branches, and vetting candidates for the upcoming November election. They aim to field a candidate in every seat, with a focus on crime, energy, promoting Australian values, and scrapping Victoria's treaty with its First Peoples. This strategy is paying off, as indicated by a Redbridge/Accent Research poll showing a surge in primary support for One Nation, surpassing the combined vote for the Liberals and Nationals at 26%. Among Generation X, One Nation is the most popular party in Australia. While the poll's results are skewed by strong support in Queensland and regional NSW, the Victorian state election presents a significant opportunity for One Nation. Labor's most marginal seats in the lower house, such as Bass, Pakenham, Hastings, Ripon, and Yan Yean, could be fertile ground for One Nation's message. Suburban seats like Melton, Berwick, and Frankston are also potential targets. One Nation's success in the upper house could grant them the balance of power or a shared power with the Greens, leaving Victoria's next government reliant on an anti-immigration party for its legislative agenda. This would provide One Nation with substantial public funding to establish a party headquarters, hire staff, and expand their presence in Victorian politics. However, the future of group ticket voting in the Legislative Council is uncertain. Labor's Left faction advocates for its abolition, which could boost the Greens, reduce political diversity, and significantly enhance One Nation's electoral prospects in Victoria. The outcome of these political maneuvers remains to be seen, but Victoria's relationship with Pauline Hanson's One Nation is evolving, challenging the state's long-held perception of political sophistication.
